Arctic Wolf

Managed Detection and Response (MDR) platform that combines 24/7 SOC-as-a-service with proprietary threat intelligence — a security operations centre delivered as a subscription. Series G at $4.3B (Apr 2022, Viking Global Investors); ARR ~$500M serving 5,000+ mid-market and enterprise customers. Fastest-growing cybersecurity company by ARR for three consecutive years.

Security🇺🇸 United StatesFounded 2012ISO/NSO equityarcticwolf.com ↗

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Reviewed May 24, 2026 (2d ago)

Current estimate

4 methods · May 24, 2026Medium confidence (49%)

$6.0B

range $4.9B – $7.0B

Implied per-share: $28.3 · vs last primary +38%

This estimate reflects what informed investors are paying on secondary markets like Hiive and Forge — not the 409A valuation on your grant letter.

Last primary round

$4.3B

Series G · 49mo ago

Secondary signal

$5.6B

Hiive · 2026-03+29%

Sourced from Forge/Hiive public data. Full order books require a paid subscription; figures shown are best-effort from public disclosures.

Headcount

2,500

employees · LinkedIn+14%

LinkedIn count — directional proxy only. Historical figure sourced via Wayback Machine; treat ±15% as normal variance.

Revenue (est.)

$500M

annual run rate · est.

Complete company data

Every input we use, where we got it from, and how much we trust it.

Field	Value	Source	Confidence
Company fundamentals
Sector	Security	Editorial classification	high
Headquarters	🇺🇸 United States	Company website · Crunchbase	high
Founded	2012	Company website · Wikipedia	high
Website	arcticwolf.com	Direct	high
Latest primary round
Post-money valuation	$4.3B	TechCrunch Apr 2022	high
Round name	Series G	TechCrunch Apr 2022	high
Date	2022-04-14 (49 months ago)	TechCrunch Apr 2022	high
Lead investor	Viking Global Investors	TechCrunch Apr 2022	high
Amount raised	$401M	TechCrunch Apr 2022	medium
Capitalization
Total fully-diluted shares	210M	SEC Form D · secondary price math · cap-table leaks › notes Public total fully-diluted share count: estimated from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market pricing math (implied valuation ÷ price per share), and leaked cap-table summaries. Considered the lowest-confidence input.	low
Implied share price (latest primary)	$28	Valuation × 1000 / share count (= $4.3B ÷ 210M)	medium
Primary equity type granted	ISO/NSO	Public reports of company equity practices	high
Financials
Annual revenue (est.)	$500M	Sacra · The Information · press leaks › notes Annual revenue: best public estimates from Sacra, The Information, WSJ leaks, or company-stated ARR. Where official, we cite the source on the funding round.	medium
EV / Revenue (implied)	8.6x	Computed from valuation ÷ revenue	medium
Headcount
Employees (now)	2,500	LinkedIn — current company page count › notes Headcount: LinkedIn 'Company' page employee count, taken now and approximately 12 months ago via the Wayback Machine. Treat as a directional proxy for revenue growth, not a hard number.	medium
Employees (12 months ago)	2,200	LinkedIn via Wayback Machine	medium
12-month headcount growth	+14%	Computed	medium
Methodology inputs
Sector ETF proxy	HACK	Editorial choice — most representative public ETF › notes Sector ETF: editorial choice of the most representative public-market proxy. Annual return: 3-year trailing average from Yahoo Finance, refreshed quarterly.	medium
ETF annual return (trailing 3-yr)	26%	Yahoo Finance · refreshed quarterly	medium

Funding history

Primary rounds reported in Bloomberg, WSJ, TechCrunch, Reuters, or SEC Form D filings (efts.sec.gov). Linked per round below.

Valuation progression (equity rounds)

Valuation progression · equity rounds

$4.3Blatest · Series G

Total growth

43×

Our estimate

$6.0B

Primary round

Down round

Our estimate

Series G+30%2022-04-14

$4.3B

Led by Viking Global Investors · raised $401M

Source: TechCrunch Apr 2022

Series F+154%2021-07-14

$3.3B

Led by Viking Global Investors · raised $150M

Source: TechCrunch Jul 2021

Series E+225%2021-03-09

$1.3B

Led by EDBI / Viking Global · raised $200M

Source: TechCrunch Mar 2021

Series D+300%2019-12-04

$0.4B

Led by EDBI · raised $60M

Source: TechCrunch Dec 2019

Series C2018-06-01

$0.1B

Led by Lightspeed Venture · raised $16M

Source: Crunchbase

Secondary market signals

Secondary market signals: bid/ask/trade indications from Hiive (hiive.com), Forge Global, Caplight Index, and tender prices reported in the press.

Implied valuation over time

Implied valuation · secondary market

$5.6B+15% vs first recorded

Bid

Trade

⚠

Forge and Hiive publish aggregated market data publicly, but full order books, individual bids/asks, and confirmed trade prices require a paid account. The figures below are sourced from their public summaries, press-reported tender prices, and SEC disclosures. They represent the best publicly available signal — not a guaranteed executable price.

Date	Type	Source	Price / share	Implied valuation
2026-03-12	trade	Hiive	$27	$5.6B
2025-11-04	bid	Forge	$23	$4.8B

View live indications: Hiive ↗ · SEC Form D filings ↗

Public peer comparables

Public peer comparables: editorial selection of public companies with the closest business model. EV/Revenue and growth from public 10-Q filings and Bloomberg, refreshed quarterly.

Ticker	Company	EV / Revenue	Revenue growth	As of
CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.	35.09x	+23%	2026-05-20
OKTA	Okta, Inc.	5.54x	+12%	2026-05-24
PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	21.36x	+15%	2026-05-24
S	SentinelOne, Inc.	6.38x	+20%	2026-05-24
ZS	Zscaler, Inc.	9.77x	+26%	2026-05-24

Confidence breakdown

How much we trust each of the four valuation methods for this specific company, and why.

Method A — Peer-multiple

weight 25%→ $6.4B75% confidence

Growth-weighted peer EV/Revenue: 16.5x → 22% private-company discount → 12.9x on $500M revenue

Method B — Secondary-implied

weight 45%→ $5.3B55% confidence

Recency-weighted average of 2 secondary indications (180-day decay)

Method C — Primary time-decay

weight 20%→ $7.2B20% confidence

↳ Effectively excluded from the blend — this method is structurally unreliable for this company.

$4.3B round (2022-04-14) × 3.44× growth × 0.85× multiple decay over 4.1 years — capped at 1.3× recent secondary ($5.6B → $7.2B)

Method D — Sector momentum

weight 10%→ $11.2B10% confidence

↳ Effectively excluded from the blend — this method is structurally unreliable for this company.

$4.3B × (1 + 26% p.j.)^4.1yr = $11.2B via HACK ETF-proxy

Overall confidence

49%

Weighted average of the four methods. Above 65% is high, 40–65% medium, below 40% low.

Medium

Worked example for an employee

A concrete walk-through using a hypothetical employee profile. Same engine the calculator uses — try it with your real numbers.

Profile: a hypothetical employee who joined Arctic Wolf 24 months ago (2024-05-26) with 2,000 options, on the standard 4-year vesting schedule with a 1-year cliff.

Vesting

1,000 of 2,000

50% vested at month 24

Implied share price (mid)

$28

weighted average of 4 methods

Gross vested value

$28,338

vested shares × implied price

Net value

$28,338

no strike, gross = net

Tax (rough)

$3,169

US federal only · AMT risk: low

What if the next round is…

Up round +30%

$32,034

New round at +30% valuation, 15% new shares issued

Down round −30%

$16,530

New round at −30% valuation, 20% new shares (higher dilution in distress)

Secondary today

$24,087

Sale on the secondary market at the typical 15% discount to the mid estimate

These numbers come from the same engine as the live calculator. Walk through with your own grant: use your real numbers →

Transparent assumptions

What we assumed where exact data isn't available. If any of these don't match your situation, the numbers above will be off.

Fully-diluted share count

210M shares

We don't have authoritative cap-table access for private companies. The number above is reconstructed from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market price-vs-valuation math, and leaked share-class summaries. Actual fully-diluted count (including unvested option pool and SAFEs) may differ by 5–15%.

Common-stock waterfall

1.0× to common

We assume a clean common-stock outcome — i.e. preferred-share liquidation preferences and ratchets do not extract value before common. In a down-exit, this assumption can be very wrong: preferred stack can take 30–70% of proceeds.

Private-company illiquidity discount

22% off public peers

Applied to Method A (peer-multiple). Per-company because category leaders with deep secondary markets and a clear IPO path warrant a smaller discount than early-stage names. The literature range is 10–35%; for Arctic Wolf we use 22% based on secondary-market depth, valuation history, and proximity to liquidity.

Revenue growth assumption (Method C)

35% YoY

Compounded forward from the last primary date to today to estimate the company's value drift. Set per-company based on disclosed or reported ARR trajectory. Method C is further capped at 1.3× the most recent secondary trade (if any) to stop runaway extrapolation when revenue growth outpaces what the market is actually paying.

Sector ETF momentum (Method D)

HACK @ 26%/year

Method D applies the trailing return of HACK as a market-proxy adjustment to the primary valuation. Crude — meant as a tiebreaker when peer and secondary data conflict, not as a primary signal.

Outlier auto-downweight

Methods >50% from median get ½ weight

Robust-statistics safety net: any method whose output strays more than 50% from the median of the other three methods has its confidence weight halved when computing the blended mid-point. Prevents a single bad extrapolation from dragging the headline.

Recency decay for secondary trades

180-day half-life (e⁻ᵈ/¹⁸⁰)

A trade from 30 days ago counts ~5× more than one from 180 days ago. Tunable; some platforms use shorter half-lives.

Tax estimate

US federal only, single filer

Uses 2024 US federal brackets, ignoring state tax, NIIT, AMT credit recovery, and any other deductions. Treat as a directional sanity check, not a tax bill.

All data from public sources. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not affiliated with Arctic Wolf. Last refreshed manually — see methodology for our update cadence.