Mistral AI

European AI lab (Paris). Maker of the Mistral models and Le Chat Pro. Series C (Sep 2025) at €11.7B (~$13.7B). Revenue reached $400M ARR by Jan 2026 — 20x YoY growth.

AI🇫🇷 FranceFounded 2023ISO/NSO equitymistral.ai ↗

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Reviewed May 18, 2026 (8d ago)

Current estimate

4 methods · May 18, 2026High confidence (63%)

$12.9B

range $9.6B – $16.2B

Implied per-share: $64.6 · vs last primary -6%

This estimate reflects what informed investors are paying on secondary markets like Hiive and Forge — not the 409A valuation on your grant letter.

Last primary round

$13.7B

Series C · 9mo ago

Secondary signal

$13.6B

Hiive · 2026-03-1%

Sourced from Forge/Hiive public data. Full order books require a paid subscription; figures shown are best-effort from public disclosures.

Headcount

500

employees · LinkedIn+79%

LinkedIn count — directional proxy only. Historical figure sourced via Wayback Machine; treat ±15% as normal variance.

Revenue (est.)

$400M

annual run rate · est.

Complete company data

Every input we use, where we got it from, and how much we trust it.

Field	Value	Source	Confidence
Company fundamentals
Sector	AI	Editorial classification	high
Headquarters	🇫🇷 France	Company website · Crunchbase	high
Founded	2023	Company website · Wikipedia	high
Website	mistral.ai	Direct	high
Latest primary round
Post-money valuation	$13.7B	TechCrunch Mar 2026	high
Round name	Series C	TechCrunch Mar 2026	high
Date	2025-09-09 (9 months ago)	TechCrunch Mar 2026	high
Lead investor	ASML / a16z / Nvidia	TechCrunch Mar 2026	high
Amount raised	$830M	TechCrunch Mar 2026	medium
Capitalization
Total fully-diluted shares	200M	SEC Form D · secondary price math · cap-table leaks › notes Public total fully-diluted share count: estimated from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market pricing math (implied valuation ÷ price per share), and leaked cap-table summaries. Considered the lowest-confidence input.	low
Implied share price (latest primary)	$65	Valuation × 1000 / share count (= $13.7B ÷ 200M)	medium
Primary equity type granted	ISO/NSO	Public reports of company equity practices	high
Financials
Annual revenue (est.)	$400M	Sacra · The Information · press leaks › notes Annual revenue: best public estimates from Sacra, The Information, WSJ leaks, or company-stated ARR. Where official, we cite the source on the funding round.	medium
EV / Revenue (implied)	34.3x	Computed from valuation ÷ revenue	medium
Headcount
Employees (now)	500	LinkedIn — current company page count › notes Headcount: LinkedIn 'Company' page employee count, taken now and approximately 12 months ago via the Wayback Machine. Treat as a directional proxy for revenue growth, not a hard number.	medium
Employees (12 months ago)	280	LinkedIn via Wayback Machine	medium
12-month headcount growth	+79%	Computed	medium
Methodology inputs
Sector ETF proxy	BOTZ	Editorial choice — most representative public ETF › notes Sector ETF: editorial choice of the most representative public-market proxy. Annual return: 3-year trailing average from Yahoo Finance, refreshed quarterly.	medium
ETF annual return (trailing 3-yr)	15%	Yahoo Finance · refreshed quarterly	medium

Funding history

Primary rounds reported in Bloomberg, WSJ, TechCrunch, Reuters, or SEC Form D filings (efts.sec.gov). Linked per round below.

Valuation progression (equity rounds)

Valuation progression · equity rounds

$13.7Blatest · Series C

Total growth

7×

Our estimate

$12.9B

Primary round

Down round

Our estimate

Debt financingDEBT · does not set equity valuation2026-03-30

$830M raised

Lenders: Consortium of 7 banks

Source: TechCrunch Mar 2026

Series C+121%2025-09-09

$13.7B

Led by ASML / a16z / Nvidia · raised $1.9B

Source: EU-Startups Sep 2025

Series B+210%2024-06-11

$6.2B

Led by General Catalyst · raised $640M

Source: TechCrunch

Series A2023-12-11

$2.0B

Led by Andreessen · raised $415M

Source: Bloomberg

Secondary market signals

Secondary market signals: bid/ask/trade indications from Hiive (hiive.com), Forge Global, Caplight Index, and tender prices reported in the press.

Implied valuation over time

Implied valuation · secondary market

$13.6B+127% vs first recorded

Ask

Bid

Tender

Trade

⚠

Forge and Hiive publish aggregated market data publicly, but full order books, individual bids/asks, and confirmed trade prices require a paid account. The figures below are sourced from their public summaries, press-reported tender prices, and SEC disclosures. They represent the best publicly available signal — not a guaranteed executable price.

Date	Type	Source	Price / share	Implied valuation
2026-03-15	trade	Hiive	$68	$13.6B
2025-12-02	trade	Forge	$60	$12.0B
2025-09-09	tender	Tender	$69	$13.7B

View live indications: Hiive ↗ · SEC Form D filings ↗

Public peer comparables

Public peer comparables: editorial selection of public companies with the closest business model. EV/Revenue and growth from public 10-Q filings and Bloomberg, refreshed quarterly.

Ticker	Company	EV / Revenue	Revenue growth	As of
CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.	35.09x	+23%	2026-05-20
MDB	MongoDB, Inc.	10.66x	+27%	2026-05-20
NET	Cloudflare, Inc.	32.81x	+34%	2026-05-20
NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	20.57x	+85%	2026-05-20
PLTR	Palantir Technologies Inc.	62.81x	+85%	2026-05-20

Typical strike prices by cohort

Strike ranges by cohort: aggregated from Glassdoor, Teamblind threads, Carta's published industry data and reports from employees. Indicative only — your actual 409A at grant time is the only authoritative number.

2023 cohort

$1–$3

per share

2024 cohort

$10–$20

per share

2025 cohort

$35–$55

per share

Confidence breakdown

How much we trust each of the four valuation methods for this specific company, and why.

Method A — Peer-multiple

weight 25%→ $11.4B75% confidence

Growth-weighted peer EV/Revenue: 36.6x → 22% private-company discount → 28.5x on $400M revenue

Method B — Secondary-implied

weight 45%→ $12.2B55% confidence

Recency-weighted average of 5 secondary indications (180-day decay)

Method C — Primary time-decay

weight 20%→ $17.7B71% confidence

$13.7B round (2025-09-09) × 7.16× growth × 0.96× multiple decay over 0.7 years — capped at 1.3× recent secondary ($13.6B → $17.7B)

Method D — Sector momentum

weight 10%→ $15.1B49% confidence

$13.7B × (1 + 15% p.j.)^0.7yr = $15.1B via BOTZ ETF-proxy

Overall confidence

63%

Weighted average of the four methods. Above 65% is high, 40–65% medium, below 40% low.

High

Worked example for an employee

A concrete walk-through using a hypothetical employee profile. Same engine the calculator uses — try it with your real numbers.

Profile: a hypothetical employee who joined Mistral AI 24 months ago (2024-05-26) with 2,000 options at a strike price of $15/share, on the standard 4-year vesting schedule with a 1-year cliff.

Vesting

1,000 of 2,000

50% vested at month 24

Implied share price (mid)

$65

weighted average of 4 methods

Gross vested value

$64,636

vested shares × implied price

Exercise cost

$15,000

1,000 × $15 strike

Net of exercise

$49,636

gross − exercise cost

Tax (rough)

$5,973

US federal only · AMT risk: low

What if the next round is…

Up round +30%

$58,066

New round at +30% valuation, 15% new shares issued

Down round −30%

$22,704

New round at −30% valuation, 20% new shares (higher dilution in distress)

Secondary today

$39,940

Sale on the secondary market at the typical 15% discount to the mid estimate

These numbers come from the same engine as the live calculator. Walk through with your own grant: use your real numbers →

Transparent assumptions

What we assumed where exact data isn't available. If any of these don't match your situation, the numbers above will be off.

Fully-diluted share count

200M shares

We don't have authoritative cap-table access for private companies. The number above is reconstructed from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market price-vs-valuation math, and leaked share-class summaries. Actual fully-diluted count (including unvested option pool and SAFEs) may differ by 5–15%.

Common-stock waterfall

1.0× to common

We assume a clean common-stock outcome — i.e. preferred-share liquidation preferences and ratchets do not extract value before common. In a down-exit, this assumption can be very wrong: preferred stack can take 30–70% of proceeds.

Private-company illiquidity discount

22% off public peers

Applied to Method A (peer-multiple). Per-company because category leaders with deep secondary markets and a clear IPO path warrant a smaller discount than early-stage names. The literature range is 10–35%; for Mistral AI we use 22% based on secondary-market depth, valuation history, and proximity to liquidity.

Revenue growth assumption (Method C)

1500% YoY

Compounded forward from the last primary date to today to estimate the company's value drift. Set per-company based on disclosed or reported ARR trajectory. Method C is further capped at 1.3× the most recent secondary trade (if any) to stop runaway extrapolation when revenue growth outpaces what the market is actually paying.

Sector ETF momentum (Method D)

BOTZ @ 15%/year

Method D applies the trailing return of BOTZ as a market-proxy adjustment to the primary valuation. Crude — meant as a tiebreaker when peer and secondary data conflict, not as a primary signal.

Outlier auto-downweight

Methods >50% from median get ½ weight

Robust-statistics safety net: any method whose output strays more than 50% from the median of the other three methods has its confidence weight halved when computing the blended mid-point. Prevents a single bad extrapolation from dragging the headline.

Recency decay for secondary trades

180-day half-life (e⁻ᵈ/¹⁸⁰)

A trade from 30 days ago counts ~5× more than one from 180 days ago. Tunable; some platforms use shorter half-lives.

Tax estimate

US federal only, single filer

Uses 2024 US federal brackets, ignoring state tax, NIIT, AMT credit recovery, and any other deductions. Treat as a directional sanity check, not a tax bill.

All data from public sources. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not affiliated with Mistral AI. Last refreshed manually — see methodology for our update cadence.