The four valuation methods disagree significantly (61.2× spread). Treat this as a wide reference range only — not a reliable point estimate.
$10B
Range suppressed — methods disagree too widely (61.2× spread)
Implied per-share: $14.6 · vs last primary +5%
No verified public secondary-market signal available for Notion. The estimate relies on last confirmed financing, peer multiples, sector momentum, and time decay.
Derived/estimated — SEC Form D filings, secondary price math, cap-table summaries[estimated — not authoritative]› notes
Public total fully-diluted share count: estimated from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market pricing math (implied valuation ÷ price per share), and leaked cap-table summaries. Considered the lowest-confidence input.
Wide method spread — treat as illustrative mechanics only. The last primary round is a more reliable anchor for high-stakes decisions.
low
Primary equity type granted
ISO/NSO
Public reports of company equity practices
high
Financials
Annual revenue (est.)
$150M
Estimated — best available public estimates (Sacra, The Information, company ARR disclosures, press reports)[estimated — not independently verified]› notes
Annual revenue: best public estimates from Sacra, The Information, WSJ leaks, or company-stated ARR. Where official, we cite the source on the funding round.
medium
EV / Revenue (implied)
66.7x
Computed from valuation ÷ revenue[derived]
medium
Headcount
Employees (now)
700
LinkedIn — current company page count› notes
Headcount: LinkedIn 'Company' page employee count, taken now and approximately 12 months ago via the Wayback Machine. Treat as a directional proxy for revenue growth, not a hard number.
medium
Employees (12 months ago)
600
LinkedIn company page — historical snapshot via Wayback Machine[estimated — ±15% directional proxy]
medium
12-month headcount growth
+17%
Computed[derived]
medium
Methodology inputs
Sector ETF proxy
IGV
Editorial choice — most representative public ETF› notes
Sector ETF: editorial choice of the most representative public-market proxy. Annual return: 3-year trailing average from Yahoo Finance, refreshed quarterly.
medium
ETF annual return (trailing 3-yr)
3%
Yahoo Finance · refreshed quarterly
medium
Funding history
Primary rounds reported in Bloomberg, WSJ, TechCrunch, Reuters, or SEC Form D filings (efts.sec.gov). Linked per round below.
Valuation progression (equity rounds)
Valuation progression · equity rounds
$10.0Blatest · Series C
Total growth
56×
Our estimate
$10.5B
Primary round
Down round
Our estimate
Series C+400%2021-10-07
$10.0B
Led by Coatue Management · raised $275M
Source: TechCrunch Oct 2021(source URL pending)
Series B (ext.)+0%2021-02-01
$2.0B
Led by Index Ventures · raised $50M
Source: Bloomberg Feb 2021(historical ref.)
Series B+1011%2020-03-04
$2.0B
Led by Index Ventures · raised $50M
Source: TechCrunch Mar 2020(historical ref.)
Series A2019-01-01
$0.2B
Led by First Round Capital · raised $10M
Source: Crunchbase(historical ref.)
Secondary market signals
Secondary market signals: bid/ask/trade indications from Hiive (hiive.com), Forge Global, Caplight Index, and tender prices reported in the press.
Implied valuation over time
Implied valuation · secondary market
$11.0B
Trade
⚠
Forge and Hiive publish aggregated market data publicly, but full order books, individual bids/asks, and confirmed trade prices require a paid account. The figures below are sourced from their public summaries, press-reported tender prices, and SEC disclosures. They represent the best publicly available signal — not a guaranteed executable price.
Public peer comparables: editorial selection of public companies with the closest business model. EV/Revenue and growth from public 10-Q filings and Bloomberg, refreshed quarterly.
Ticker
Company
EV / Revenue
Revenue growth
As of
ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.
5.87x
+18%
2026-07-10
CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
3.11x
+13%
2026-07-10
HUBS
HubSpot, Inc.
3.2x
+23%
2026-07-10
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
8.04x
+22%
2026-07-10
WDAY
Workday, Inc.
3.47x
+14%
2026-07-10
Confidence breakdown
How much we trust each of the four valuation methods for this specific company, and why.
Method A — Peer-multiple
weight 25%suppressed23% confidence
↳ Effectively excluded from the blend — this method is structurally unreliable for this company.
Growth-weighted peer EV/Revenue: 4.9x → 22% private-company discount → 3.9x on $150M revenue. Output implies less than half the recent market anchor ($10B) — this company is likely valued on optionality / non-revenue factors and Method A is structurally less reliable here.
Method B — Secondary-implied
weight 45%suppressed25% confidence
↳ Effectively excluded from the blend — this method is structurally unreliable for this company.
No verified secondary market data available — estimate relies on primary round, peer multiples, and sector momentum.
Method C — Primary time-decay
weight 20%suppressed20% confidence
↳ Effectively excluded from the blend — this method is structurally unreliable for this company.
$10B round (2021-10-07) × 4.17× growth × 0.85× multiple decay over 4.8 years
Method D — Sector momentum
weight 10%suppressed10% confidence
↳ Effectively excluded from the blend — this method is structurally unreliable for this company.
Weighted average of the four methods. Above 60% is high, 35–60% medium, below 35% low.
Low
Worked example for an employee
Illustrative mechanics only — this shows how the equity model works, not a reliable value estimate.
Illustrative mechanics only
This example shows equity mechanics only. It is not a reliable estimate of current value because model support is weak (confidence 22%, spread 61.2×).
Show illustrative values (not a reliable estimate) ▸
Profile: a hypothetical employee who joined Notion 24 months ago (2024-07-10) with 2,000 options, on the standard 4-year vesting schedule with a 1-year cliff.
Vesting
1,000 of 2,000
50% vested at month 24
Implied share price (mid)
$15
weighted average of 4 methods — low confidence
Gross vested value
$14,644
vested shares × implied price
Net value
$14,644
no strike, gross = net
Tax (rough)
$1,525
US federal only · AMT risk: low
What if the next round is…
Up round +30%
$16,555
New round at +30% valuation, 15% new shares issued
Down round −30%
$8,543
New round at −30% valuation, 20% new shares (higher dilution in distress)
Secondary today
$12,448
Sale on the secondary market at the typical 15% discount to the mid estimate
These illustrative values use the same calculation engine as the live calculator, but the underlying model is low-confidence for Notion. Use your own numbers as a starting point only. Try the calculator →
Transparent assumptions
What we assumed where exact data isn't available. If any of these don't match your situation, the numbers above will be off.
Fully-diluted share count
714.285714M shares
We don't have authoritative cap-table access for private companies. The number above is reconstructed from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market price-vs-valuation math, and leaked share-class summaries. Actual fully-diluted count (including unvested option pool and SAFEs) may differ by 5–15%.
Common-stock waterfall
1.0× to common
We assume a clean common-stock outcome — i.e. preferred-share liquidation preferences and ratchets do not extract value before common. In a down-exit, this assumption can be very wrong: preferred stack can take 30–70% of proceeds.
Private-company illiquidity discount
22% off public peers
Applied to Method A (peer-multiple). Per-company because category leaders with deep secondary markets and a clear IPO path warrant a smaller discount than early-stage names. The literature range is 10–35%; for Notion we use 22% based on secondary-market depth, valuation history, and proximity to liquidity.
Revenue growth assumption (Method C)
35% YoY
Compounded forward from the last primary date to today to estimate the company's value drift. Set per-company based on disclosed or reported ARR trajectory. Method C is further capped at 1.3× the most recent secondary trade (if any) to stop runaway extrapolation when revenue growth outpaces what the market is actually paying.
Sector ETF momentum (Method D)
IGV @ 3%/year
Method D applies the trailing return of IGV as a market-proxy adjustment to the primary valuation. Crude — meant as a tiebreaker when peer and secondary data conflict, not as a primary signal.
Outlier auto-downweight
Methods >50% from median get ½ weight
Robust-statistics safety net: any method whose output strays more than 50% from the median of the other three methods has its confidence weight halved when computing the blended mid-point. Prevents a single bad extrapolation from dragging the headline.
Recency decay for secondary trades
180-day half-life (e⁻ᵈ/¹⁸⁰)
A trade from 30 days ago counts ~5× more than one from 180 days ago. Tunable; some platforms use shorter half-lives.
Tax estimate
US federal only, single filer
Uses 2024 US federal brackets, ignoring state tax, NIIT, AMT credit recovery, and any other deductions. Treat as a directional sanity check, not a tax bill.
All data from public sources. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not affiliated with Notion. Last refreshed manually — see methodology for our update cadence.