SpaceX

Falcon, Starship and Starlink. Absorbed xAI in an all-stock merger (Feb 2, 2026) — combined entity valued at ~$1.25T. Confidential IPO S-1 filed April 1, 2026, targeting $1.75T–$2T at listing.

Space🇺🇸 United StatesFounded 2002ISO/NSO equityspacex.com ↗

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Reviewed May 18, 2026 (8d ago)

Current estimate

4 methods · May 18, 2026Medium confidence (40%)

$550.4B

range $0.0B – $1,371.5B⚠ methods disagree (4.0× spread)

Implied per-share: $275.2 · vs last primary -56%

This estimate reflects what informed investors are paying on secondary markets like Hiive and Forge — not the 409A valuation on your grant letter.

Last primary round

$1250B

xAI Merger (all-stock) · 4mo ago

Secondary signal

$274.0B

Public Report · 2026-05-78%

Sourced from Forge/Hiive public data. Full order books require a paid subscription; figures shown are best-effort from public disclosures.

Headcount

16,000

employees · LinkedIn+19%

LinkedIn count — directional proxy only. Historical figure sourced via Wayback Machine; treat ±15% as normal variance.

Revenue (est.)

$15.5B

annual run rate · est.

Complete company data

Every input we use, where we got it from, and how much we trust it.

Field	Value	Source	Confidence
Company fundamentals
Sector	Space	Editorial classification	high
Headquarters	🇺🇸 United States	Company website · Crunchbase	high
Founded	2002	Company website · Wikipedia	high
Website	spacex.com	Direct	high
Latest primary round
Post-money valuation	$1250B	Bloomberg / Fortune Feb 2026	high
Round name	xAI Merger (all-stock)	Bloomberg / Fortune Feb 2026	high
Date	2026-02-02 (4 months ago)	Bloomberg / Fortune Feb 2026	high
Lead investor	—	Bloomberg / Fortune Feb 2026	high
Amount raised	Not disclosed	Bloomberg / Fortune Feb 2026	medium
Capitalization
Total fully-diluted shares	2,000M	SEC Form D · secondary price math · cap-table leaks › notes Public total fully-diluted share count: estimated from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market pricing math (implied valuation ÷ price per share), and leaked cap-table summaries. Considered the lowest-confidence input.	low
Implied share price (latest primary)	$275	Valuation × 1000 / share count (= $1250B ÷ 2000M)	medium
Primary equity type granted	ISO/NSO	Public reports of company equity practices	high
Financials
Annual revenue (est.)	$15,500M	Sacra · The Information · press leaks › notes Annual revenue: best public estimates from Sacra, The Information, WSJ leaks, or company-stated ARR. Where official, we cite the source on the funding round.	medium
EV / Revenue (implied)	80.6x	Computed from valuation ÷ revenue	medium
Headcount
Employees (now)	16,000	LinkedIn — current company page count › notes Headcount: LinkedIn 'Company' page employee count, taken now and approximately 12 months ago via the Wayback Machine. Treat as a directional proxy for revenue growth, not a hard number.	medium
Employees (12 months ago)	13,500	LinkedIn via Wayback Machine	medium
12-month headcount growth	+19%	Computed	medium
Methodology inputs
Sector ETF proxy	UFO	Editorial choice — most representative public ETF › notes Sector ETF: editorial choice of the most representative public-market proxy. Annual return: 3-year trailing average from Yahoo Finance, refreshed quarterly.	medium
ETF annual return (trailing 3-yr)	51%	Yahoo Finance · refreshed quarterly	medium

Funding history

Primary rounds reported in Bloomberg, WSJ, TechCrunch, Reuters, or SEC Form D filings (efts.sec.gov). Linked per round below.

Valuation progression (equity rounds)

Valuation progression · equity rounds

$1.3Tlatest · xAI Merger (all-stock)

Total growth

8×

Our estimate

$550B

Primary round

Down round

Our estimate

xAI Merger (all-stock)+56%2026-02-02

$1,250.0B

Led by —

Source: Bloomberg / Fortune Feb 2026

Secondary sale+95%2025-12-13

$800.0B

Led by Internal

Source: Fortune Dec 2025

Employee Tender+17%2025-07-01

$410.0B

Led by Internal

Source: WSJ Jul 2025

Employee Tender+67%2025-01-15

$350.0B

Led by Internal

Source: Bloomberg Jan 2025

Employee Tender+40%2024-06-01

$210.0B

Led by Internal

Source: WSJ

Employee Tender2023-06-01

$150.0B

Led by Internal

Source: Reuters

Secondary market signals

Secondary market signals: bid/ask/trade indications from Hiive (hiive.com), Forge Global, Caplight Index, and tender prices reported in the press.

Implied valuation over time

Implied valuation · secondary market

$274B-22% vs first recorded

Tender

Trade

⚠

Forge and Hiive publish aggregated market data publicly, but full order books, individual bids/asks, and confirmed trade prices require a paid account. The figures below are sourced from their public summaries, press-reported tender prices, and SEC disclosures. They represent the best publicly available signal — not a guaranteed executable price.

Date	Type	Source	Price / share	Implied valuation
2026-05-08	trade	Public Report	$650	$274.0B
2026-04-15	trade	Public Report	$640	$270.0B
2026-02-02	tender	Public Report	$625	$1,250.0B

View live indications: Hiive ↗ · SEC Form D filings ↗

Public peer comparables

Public peer comparables: editorial selection of public companies with the closest business model. EV/Revenue and growth from public 10-Q filings and Bloomberg, refreshed quarterly.

Ticker	Company	EV / Revenue	Revenue growth	As of
KTOS	Kratos Defense & Security Solut	7.44x	+23%	2026-05-20
LMT	Lockheed Martin Corporation	1.64x	+0%	2026-05-20
NOC	Northrop Grumman Corporation	1.86x	+4%	2026-05-20
RKLB	Rocket Lab Corporation	115.64x	+64%	2026-05-20
RTX	RTX Corporation	2.64x	+9%	2026-05-20

Typical strike prices by cohort

Strike ranges by cohort: aggregated from Glassdoor, Teamblind threads, Carta's published industry data and reports from employees. Indicative only — your actual 409A at grant time is the only authoritative number.

2021 cohort

$28–$45

per share

2022 cohort

$55–$75

per share

2023 cohort

$77–$95

per share

2024 cohort

$110–$135

per share

2025 cohort

$175–$215

per share

Confidence breakdown

How much we trust each of the four valuation methods for this specific company, and why.

Method A — Peer-multiple

weight 25%→ $1,057.5B75% confidence

Growth-weighted peer EV/Revenue: 75.8x → 10% private-company discount → 68.2x on $15500M revenue

Method B — Secondary-implied

weight 45%→ $525.1B70% confidence

Recency-weighted average of 8 secondary indications (180-day decay)

Method C — Primary time-decay

weight 20%→ $356.2B79% confidence

$1250B round (2026-02-02) × 1.13× growth × 0.98× multiple decay over 0.3 years — capped at 1.3× recent secondary ($274.0B → $356.2B)

Method D — Sector momentum

weight 10%→ $1,420.9B55% confidence

$1250B × (1 + 51% p.j.)^0.3yr = $1420.9B via UFO ETF-proxy

Overall confidence

40%

Weighted average of the four methods. Above 65% is high, 40–65% medium, below 40% low.

Medium

Worked example for an employee

A concrete walk-through using a hypothetical employee profile. Same engine the calculator uses — try it with your real numbers.

Profile: a hypothetical employee who joined SpaceX 24 months ago (2024-05-26) with 2,000 options at a strike price of $123/share, on the standard 4-year vesting schedule with a 1-year cliff.

Vesting

1,000 of 2,000

50% vested at month 24

Implied share price (mid)

$275

weighted average of 4 methods

Gross vested value

$275,212

vested shares × implied price

Exercise cost

$122,500

1,000 × $123 strike

Net of exercise

$152,712

gross − exercise cost

Tax (rough)

$29,693

US federal only · AMT risk: medium

What if the next round is…

Up round +30%

$188,609

New round at +30% valuation, 15% new shares issued

Down round −30%

$38,040

New round at −30% valuation, 20% new shares (higher dilution in distress)

Secondary today

$111,430

Sale on the secondary market at the typical 15% discount to the mid estimate

These numbers come from the same engine as the live calculator. Walk through with your own grant: use your real numbers →

Transparent assumptions

What we assumed where exact data isn't available. If any of these don't match your situation, the numbers above will be off.

Fully-diluted share count

2000M shares

We don't have authoritative cap-table access for private companies. The number above is reconstructed from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market price-vs-valuation math, and leaked share-class summaries. Actual fully-diluted count (including unvested option pool and SAFEs) may differ by 5–15%.

Common-stock waterfall

1.0× to common

We assume a clean common-stock outcome — i.e. preferred-share liquidation preferences and ratchets do not extract value before common. In a down-exit, this assumption can be very wrong: preferred stack can take 30–70% of proceeds.

Private-company illiquidity discount

10% off public peers

Applied to Method A (peer-multiple). Per-company because category leaders with deep secondary markets and a clear IPO path warrant a smaller discount than early-stage names. The literature range is 10–35%; for SpaceX we use 10% based on secondary-market depth, valuation history, and proximity to liquidity.

Revenue growth assumption (Method C)

50% YoY

Compounded forward from the last primary date to today to estimate the company's value drift. Set per-company based on disclosed or reported ARR trajectory. Method C is further capped at 1.3× the most recent secondary trade (if any) to stop runaway extrapolation when revenue growth outpaces what the market is actually paying.

Sector ETF momentum (Method D)

UFO @ 51%/year

Method D applies the trailing return of UFO as a market-proxy adjustment to the primary valuation. Crude — meant as a tiebreaker when peer and secondary data conflict, not as a primary signal.

Outlier auto-downweight

Methods >50% from median get ½ weight

Robust-statistics safety net: any method whose output strays more than 50% from the median of the other three methods has its confidence weight halved when computing the blended mid-point. Prevents a single bad extrapolation from dragging the headline.

Recency decay for secondary trades

180-day half-life (e⁻ᵈ/¹⁸⁰)

A trade from 30 days ago counts ~5× more than one from 180 days ago. Tunable; some platforms use shorter half-lives.

Tax estimate

US federal only, single filer

Uses 2024 US federal brackets, ignoring state tax, NIIT, AMT credit recovery, and any other deductions. Treat as a directional sanity check, not a tax bill.

All data from public sources. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not affiliated with SpaceX. Last refreshed manually — see methodology for our update cadence.