If you hold private company equity at any of the unicorns PrivatePulse covers, the macro environment in 2026 is relevant to how you think about the value of that equity and when to pursue liquidity.
The interest rate effect
Private company valuations are highly sensitive to interest rates. When rates are high (2022–2024), the discount rate applied to future cash flows rises, compressing multiples. When rates fall (as they did in late 2024 and 2025), multiples expand. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2025 contributed directly to the valuation expansion we've seen across AI companies. OpenAI's Series H at $852B came after two Fed cuts.
AI sector premium — will it persist?
AI companies currently trade at a dramatic premium to both traditional software multiples and to historical private market multiples. OpenAI at 35× revenue, Anthropic at 12× revenue (at $380B), Perplexity at 46× — these are extraordinary multiples by any historical standard. The justification is expected growth. If that growth materializes, the multiples look rational. If growth slows, there's significant downside.
Secondary market volume in 2025-2026
Secondary market volume for private company shares hit approximately $150B globally in 2025, up from $110B in 2024. This reflects two trends: more employees wanting partial liquidity, and more institutional capital chasing private company exposure before IPOs. The result for employees: better access to liquidity than at any point in the past decade.
What to watch in 2026
- IPO pipeline: Databricks, Stripe, and potentially Anduril are widely expected. A successful IPO from any of them validates private market valuations.
- AI revenue growth: if OpenAI's $24B ARR continues growing 80%+ YoY, current valuations are defensible. If growth slows to 30%, multiple compression is likely.
- Interest rates: any reversal in rate cuts would compress multiples — the same mechanism that drove them higher would reverse.
- Regulatory environment: SEC and FTC scrutiny of AI companies and secondary markets could affect liquidity access.
Private market equity in 2026 is at a historically unusual moment: high valuations, improving liquidity, and a macro environment that's been equity-friendly. That combination doesn't last forever. Employees who have significant vested equity should model their liquidity options now — not when the environment shifts.