Stripe has been an IPO candidate longer than most current employees have worked there. The 2021 round at $95B was followed by a painful down round in 2023 to $70B, then a dramatic recovery: the February 2025 employee tender offer confirmed a $159B valuation — more than doubling from the 2023 low in under two years.
The tender offer and what it means
The February 2025 tender allowed employees to sell vested shares at a price implying a $159B company valuation. This is now the de facto market-clearing price for Stripe equity. Secondary trades on Forge and Hiive in early 2026 are tracking at or slightly above this level, suggesting secondary investors expect further appreciation.
The revenue picture
Stripe is estimated to have generated approximately $8B in net revenue during 2025, growing roughly 25% year over year. Public fintech peers (Adyen, Block) trade at 5–15× EV/Revenue. At $159B, Stripe trades at approximately 20× — a premium that reflects its dominant position, high margins, and expected continued growth.
What IPO scenarios look like for employees
Three rough IPO scenarios from the current $159B base:
- Conservative ($159B): IPO at current tender price — immediate liquidity with no further upside.
- Base case ($200–220B): 25–40% above current tender, roughly 25× 2025 revenue. Realistic for a high-quality payments infrastructure company.
- Bull case ($300B+): would require re-rating as a software/infrastructure company. Possible if margins continue expanding.
Translating to employee dollars
Take a mid-tenure employee: 8,000 vested options at $55 average strike, joined in 2022. At the $159B tender: roughly $1.15M gross spread, before tax and exercise cost. At a $200B IPO: approximately $1.5M gross — meaningful upside but not transformative over the tender.
The thing most current Stripe employees underweight: the secondary market is already functional at scale. You can realise meaningful value through Forge or Hiive today — typically within 5–10% of the tender price — without waiting for an IPO.