Anthropic vs Cognition AI: employee equity compared
Secondary market prices, valuation trajectory, equity structure, and liquidity outlook for employees choosing between Anthropic and Cognition AI.
Anthropic
AI safety lab and maker of Claude. Series H closed May 2026 at $965B ($65B raised). ARR ~$47B. Note: Anthropic placed secondary transfer restrictions in May 2026 — unauthorised transfers deemed invalid.
IPO likely 2027–2028. Secondary liquidity is restricted — Anthropic issued transfer-restriction notices to Forge, Hiive, and Sydecar in May 2026. Board pre-approval required for any transfer.
Highest-ARR private AI lab ($47B); RSU (no exercise cost); restricted secondary market limits liquidity options
Cognition AI
Creator of Devin, the first fully autonomous AI software engineer.
IPO plausible 2027–2029 if growth trajectory holds. Secondary indication near primary round valuation. Liquidity may come via tender offer or strategic acquisition before listing.
High-growth AI play; ISO/NSO options; fast-moving valuations reward timing
Key differences for employees
Equity structure
Anthropic grants RSU — no exercise cost. Your equity vests and converts to cash or shares automatically at a liquidity event. Cognition AI grants ISO/NSO with strike prices from $10–$20.
Secondary market signal
The secondary market prices Anthropic at +3% vs its last primary round ($965B → $995B, source: Hiive). Cognition AI has no recent verified secondary signal. A higher secondary premium typically signals stronger investor demand and potentially better near-term liquidity for employees looking to sell.
Revenue and growth
Anthropic runs at $47B ARR, growing +400% YoY (hypergrowth). Cognition AI runs at $0B ARR, growing +400% YoY (hypergrowth). Revenue growth rate matters for equity because it drives the peer-multiple valuation — the method most correlated with exit multiples.
Liquidity timeline
Anthropic: IPO likely 2027–2028. Secondary liquidity is restricted — Anthropic issued transfer-restriction notices to Forge, Hiive, and Sydecar in May 2026. Board pre-approval required for any transfer.
Cognition AI: IPO plausible 2027–2029 if growth trajectory holds. Secondary indication near primary round valuation. Liquidity may come via tender offer or strategic acquisition before listing.
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