Anthropic vs Scale AI: employee equity compared
Secondary market prices, valuation trajectory, equity structure, and liquidity outlook for employees choosing between Anthropic and Scale AI.
Anthropic
AI safety lab and maker of Claude. Series H closed May 2026 at $965B ($65B raised). ARR ~$47B. Note: Anthropic placed secondary transfer restrictions in May 2026 — unauthorised transfers deemed invalid.
IPO likely 2027–2028. Secondary liquidity is restricted — Anthropic issued transfer-restriction notices to Forge, Hiive, and Sydecar in May 2026. Board pre-approval required for any transfer.
Highest-ARR private AI lab ($47B); RSU (no exercise cost); restricted secondary market limits liquidity options
Scale AI
Data-labeling and AI infrastructure platform. Meta acquired a 49% stake at $29B implied valuation (Jun 2025). Secondary trades at ~50% discount reflecting client departures (Google, OpenAI, xAI) post-deal.
IPO uncertain. Meta's 49% stake limits independence; Founder Alexandr Wang moved to Meta as Chief AI Officer. Liquidity most likely via further Meta acquisition or tender offer.
Deep US government/defense contracts; ISO/NSO options; secondary at steep discount to primary — timing matters
Key differences for employees
Equity structure
Anthropic grants RSU — no exercise cost. Your equity vests and converts to cash or shares automatically at a liquidity event. Scale AI grants ISO/NSO with strike prices from $35–$50.
Secondary market signal
The secondary market prices Anthropic at +3% vs its last primary round ($965B → $995B, source: Hiive). Scale AI has no recent verified secondary signal. A higher secondary premium typically signals stronger investor demand and potentially better near-term liquidity for employees looking to sell.
Revenue and growth
Anthropic runs at $47B ARR, growing +400% YoY (hypergrowth). Scale AI runs at $1B ARR, growing +70% YoY (fast). Revenue growth rate matters for equity because it drives the peer-multiple valuation — the method most correlated with exit multiples.
Liquidity timeline
Anthropic: IPO likely 2027–2028. Secondary liquidity is restricted — Anthropic issued transfer-restriction notices to Forge, Hiive, and Sydecar in May 2026. Board pre-approval required for any transfer.
Scale AI: IPO uncertain. Meta's 49% stake limits independence; Founder Alexandr Wang moved to Meta as Chief AI Officer. Liquidity most likely via further Meta acquisition or tender offer.
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